人才流失——塞翁失馬,焉知非福?

    

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    Economics focus

    聚焦經濟


    Drain or gain?

    肥水,外人田?


    Poor countries can end up benefiting when their brightest citizens emigrate

    
塞翁失馬,焉知非福?

    

    


    May 26th 2011 | From the print edition from the Economist

    譯者:鄒斌

    WHEN people in rich countries worry about migration,they tend to think of low-paid incomers who compete for jobs as construction workers,dishwashers or farmhands. When people in developing countries worry about migration,they are usually concerned at the prospect of their best and brightest decamping to Silicon Valley or to hospitals and universities in the developed world. These are the kind of workers that countries like Britain,Canada and Australia try to attract by using immigration rules that privilege college graduates.

    已開發國家的人們擔心移民時,他們會傾向於想到那些拿著低薪水,搶著做建築工人,洗碗工或者雇農的移民。然而开发中国家卻不這樣,他們關心的是自己這邊的精英們進入矽谷或者醫院以及大學的前景。而這些人正是諸如英國、加拿大、澳大利亞一類國家的大學畢業生移民優惠政策的對象。

    Lots of studies have found that well-educated people from developing countries are particularly likely to emigrate. By some estimates,two-thirds of highly educated Cape Verdeans live outside the country. A big survey of Indian households carried out in 2004 asked about family members who had moved abroad. It found that nearly 40% of emigrants had more than a high-school education,compared with around 3.3% of all Indians over the age of 25. This“brain drain”has long bothered policymakers in poor countries. They fear that it hurts their economies,depriving them of much-needed skilled workers who could have taught at their universities,worked in their hospitals and come up with clever new products for their factories to make.

    許多研究發現,在开发中国家,受過良好教育的人更有可能移民。據估計,受過良好教育的佛得角人中有三分之二在國外居住。2004進行的一項關於印度家庭的調查對移居國外的家庭成員進行了詢問,發現將近40%的印度移民至少是高中學歷,而在25歲以上的印度人中這個比例只有大約3.3%。此類“人才外流“一直讓貧窮國家的決策者們頭疼不已。他們擔心這會導致急需的科技類人才流失,比如大學教師,醫護人員或者是為工廠研發新產品的員工,最終經濟會囙此受到羈絆。

    Many now take issue with this view(see article). Several economists reckon that the brain-drain hypothesis fails to account for the effects of remittances,for the beneficial effects of returning migrants,and for the possibility that being able to migrate to greener pastures induces people to get more education. Some argue that once these factors are taken into account,an exodus of highly skilled people could turn out to be a net benefit to the countries they leave. Recent studies of migration from countries as far apart as Ghana,Fiji,India and Romania have found support for this“brain gain”idea.

    但現在很多人反對這種觀點(另見文)。一些經濟學家認為人才流失假說並沒有考慮到僑匯、移民回流的好處,以及移民帶動的學習熱情。另一些人則覺得一旦考慮這些因素,高技術人才的流出會有益於他們的國家。最近關於加納、斐濟、印度、羅馬尼亞移民現象的研究發現,這些國家的情况符合這種“人才外流”觀點。

    The most obvious way in which migrants repay their homelands is through remittances. Workers from developing countries remitted a total of $325 billion in 2010,according to the World Bank. In Lebanon,Lesotho,Nepal,Tajikistan and a few other places,remittances are more than 20% of GDP. A skilled migrant may earn several multiples of what his income would have been had he stayed at home. A study of Romanian migrants to America found that the average emigrant earned almost $12000 a year more in America than he would have done in his native land,a huge premium for someone from a country where income per person is around $7500(at market exchange rates).

    移民們回饋祖國的最直接管道就是匯款。據世行的估算,來自开发中国家的勞動者2010年共計匯款3250億美元。黎巴嫩、萊索托、尼泊爾、塔吉克共和國和其他一些地區,僑匯額度超過了GDP的20%。一個技術移民掙的錢可能是在國內的幾倍。一項關於美國的羅馬尼亞移民研究發現:一般的移民一年下來基本能比在羅馬尼亞多掙12000美元,要比某些國家的人均收入7500美元多得多(按市場匯率計算)

    It is true that many skilled migrants have been educated and trained partly at the expense of their(often cash-strapped)governments. Some argue that poor countries should therefore rethink how much they spend on higher education. Indians,for example,often debate whether their government should continue to subsidise the Indian Institutes of Technology(IITs),its elite engineering schools,when large numbers of IIT graduates end up in Silicon Valley or on Wall Street. But a new study of remittances sent home by Ghanaian migrants suggests that on average they transfer enough over their working lives to cover the amount spent on educating them several times over. The study finds that once remittances are taken into account,the cost of education would have to be 5.6 times the official figure to make it a losing proposition for Ghana.

    的確,許多技術移民已經受過由政府部分出資的教育和培訓。囙此一些人認為窮國應該反思高等教育方面的投入多少。比方說印度,其頂尖工科高校印度理工學院的大多數畢業生最後都去了矽谷和華爾街,這讓印度政府經常就是否該繼續資助該學院而產生分歧。然而,一項關於加納移民的僑匯研究顯示:就平均水準而言,他們的匯款數額要比花在他們身上的教育資金多出數倍。該研究還發現:一旦算入匯款,而且加納的教育投資是虧本的話,那麼投入得是當前的4.6倍。

    There are more subtle ways in which the departure of some skilled people may aid poorer countries. Some emigrants would have been jobless had they stayed. Studies have found that unemployment rates among young people with college degrees in countries like Morocco and Tunisia are several multiples of those among the poorly educated,perhaps because graduates are more demanding. Migration may lead to a more productive pairing of people's skills and jobs. Some of the benefits of this improved match then flow back to the migrant's home country,most directly via remittances.

    此外,技術移民也在其他一些方面潜移默化地幫助他們貧窮的國家。如果一些人沒有移民的話,他們在國內可能是找不到工作的。若干研究發現:在摩洛哥和突尼斯,大學畢業生們的失業率數倍於教育水准低下的人,原因可能是畢業生們對工作的高要求。移民也許會對人們的技能和工作進行更有效的分配。通過匯款這種最為直接的管道,移民們的祖國最後也受益於這種改善後的分配效果。

    The possibility of emigration may even have beneficial effects on those who choose to stay,by giving people in poor countries an incentive to invest in education. A study of Cape Verdeans finds that an increase of ten percentage points in young people's perceived probability of emigrating raises the probability of their completing secondary school by around eight points. Another study looks at Fiji. A series of coups beginning in 1987 was seen by Fijians of Indian origin as permanently harming their prospects in the country by limiting their share of government jobs and political power. This set off a wave of emigration. Yet young Indians in Fiji became more likely to go to university even as the outlook at home dimmed,in part because Australia,Canada and New Zealand,three of the top destinations for Fijians,put more emphasis on attracting skilled migrants. Since some of those who got more education ended up staying,the skill levels of the resident Fijian population soared.

    那些留下來的人會因為移民的機會而投資教育,這也是移民帶來的益處。一項關於佛得角人的研究發現年輕人的移民可能性每新增10%,他們完成中學教育的比率就會上升8%。另一項關於斐濟的研究表明開始於1987年的一系列政變被斐濟人認為永久性地影響了他們在這個國家的前途,限制了政府提供的工作崗位和公權力得不到平衡分配。這引發了大規模的移民,但是儘管現在國內前景暗淡,斐濟印度青年現在也更熱衷於接受大學教育,部分原因在於澳大利亞、加拿大、紐西蘭(斐濟人移民的首選)更加注重吸引科技型移民。因為其中一些人最後得以留下來,斐濟人口的科技水准也一路高歌猛進。

    Passport to riches

    財富通行證

    Migrants can also affect their home country directly. In a recent book about the Indian diaspora,Devesh Kapur of the University of Pennsylvania argues that Indians in Silicon Valley helped shape the regulatory structure for India's home-grown venture-capital industry. He also argues that these people helped Indian software companies break into the American market by vouching for their quality. Finally,migrants may return home,often with skills that would have been hard to pick up had they never gone abroad. The study of Romanian migrants found that returnees earned an average of 12-14% more than similar people who had stayed at home. Letting educated people go where they want looks like the brainy option.

    移民也可以直接對其祖國產生影響。在其關於印度人移民群體書中,賓夕法尼亞大學的Devesh Kapur認為:矽谷的印第安人們幫助確立了印度本土的創投行業管理結構。他也認為正是這些人通過為印度軟體公司產品品質擔保而幫助他們打入了美國市場。最後,移民也可能會回家,而且通常都是帶著本國學不來的科技回國的。有關羅馬尼亞移民的研究發現海歸們的收入要比那些帶在國內的同行平均高出12%—14%。讓那些受過教育的人們移民到想去的地方似乎是明智之選。

    Articles and books referred to in this piece:

    參考文獻:

    “Diaspora,Democracy and Development”by Devesh Kapur,Princeton University Press,2010

    移民群體,民主和發展,Devesh Kapur,普林斯頓大學出版社,2010.

    “The Returns to the brain drain and brain circulation in sub-Saharan Africa: Some computations using data from Ghana”,by Yaw Nyarko,NBER Working Paper 16813,February 2011

    人才外流的好處以及非洲撒哈拉以南地區的人才流量:使用加納數據做出的一些估算,Yaw Nyarko,美國國家經濟研究局工報168132011年2月

    “Testing the‘Brain Gain' Hypothesis: Micro Evidence from Cape Verde”by Catia Batista,Aitor Lacuesta and Pedro C. Vicente. IZA DP No. 5048,July 2010

    驗證人才流失假說:來自佛得角的微觀證據,Catia Batista,Aitor Lacuesta,Pedro C. Vicente 5048號,2010年7月

    “The selection of migrants and returnees: Evidence from Romania and its implications”by J. William Ambrosini,Karin Mayr,Giovanni Peri and Dragos Radu. NBER Working Paper 16912,March 2011.

    移民和海歸選擇:來自羅馬尼亞的證據及其含義:J. William Ambrosini,Karin Mayr,Giovanni Peri,Dragos Radu,美國國家經濟研究局工報169122011年3月

    “Skilled emigration and skill creation: A quasi-experiment“by Satish Chand and Michael A.Clemens. Center for Global Development working paper.

    科技型移民和科技創造:准實驗,Satish Chand,Michael A.Clemens.,全球發展中心工報